Overview of the U.S. Cookies Market
The United States cookies market is a robust and evolving sector within the broader baked goods industry. It is projected to reach US$ 15.7 billion by 2033, up from US$ 11.38 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 3.64% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is driven by a mix of consumer demands, from a desire for convenient and indulgent snacks to a rising preference for healthier, organic options.
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The market landscape is constantly shifting. While classic favorites like chocolate chip, oatmeal, and peanut butter cookies continue to be staples, there is a growing demand for products that align with modern dietary trends, such as gluten-free, keto-friendly, and plant-based options. Manufacturers are also innovating with functional ingredients like collagen and protein, as well as unique flavors and textures, to attract new customers. Established companies like Mondelez International (Oreo, Chips Ahoy!) and Kellogg’s (Keebler) are facing increasing competition from smaller, artisanal bakeries that use direct-to-consumer channels and social media to target niche markets.
Retail channels are also changing. While supermarkets remain the dominant sales channel, the convenience of online grocery shopping and subscription-based snack boxes is fueling rapid growth in e-commerce. To boost sales and engage consumers, many brands are leveraging limited-edition and seasonal releases. Sustainability is another key focus, with companies investing in ethical sourcing and eco-friendly packaging to appeal to environmentally conscious consumers, particularly millennials and Gen Z. Despite rising ingredient costs and inflationary pressures, the cookie market has shown resilience, demonstrating strong brand loyalty and the product’s enduring appeal as a comfort food.
Key Growth Drivers
1. The Rise of On-the-Go Urban Lifestyles
In fast-paced urban environments, consumers are increasingly seeking quick and convenient food options. This has led to a shift in eating habits, where cookies are now considered a viable alternative to traditional breakfast items. This trend is particularly evident in cities on the Northeast and West Coasts, where busy schedules place a high value on convenience. Manufacturers are capitalizing on this by creating breakfast-specific cookie varieties with added whole grains, protein boosts, and lower sugar content. For example, in 2025, Mondelez International is expanding its Oreo product line to include breakfast-positioned cookies, strategically repositioning them from a simple snack to an acceptable morning option.
2. Plant-Based Fat Reformulation
Ingredient innovation is focusing on creating plant-based fat alternatives that mimic the flavor and texture of traditional fats while appealing to consumers’ growing environmental concerns. This is a significant trend, especially among younger, urban populations. Manufacturers are investing in research and development to find plant-based fats that can replicate the sensory experience of conventional butter and shortening. The West Coast is a leader in adopting these reformulated products, as consumers in this region are more willing to pay a premium for sustainable alternatives.
3. Growing Demand for Portion-Controlled Snacks
Consumer behavior shows a clear shift toward mindful consumption. People are looking for portion-controlled formats that allow for guilt-free indulgence without compromising on health goals. This trend is accelerating among urban professionals seeking convenient snacks that are both satisfying and align with their wellness objectives. The Northeast, with its higher disposable incomes, is at the forefront of this trend. In response, food manufacturers are offering mini-cookies and single-serve packaging. For instance, in 2025, Campbell Soup Company’s Pepperidge Farm introduced limited-edition Holiday Cookie Jar Collections, which feature portion-controlled ceramic containers that appeal to consumers’ desire for mindful consumption.
Challenges in the U.S. Cookies Market
1. Health-Conscious Consumer Trends
The demand for healthier cookie options, such as vegan, gluten-free, and low-sugar varieties, is putting pressure on the industry. Manufacturers must reformulate classic recipes, often substituting core ingredients with alternatives like almond flour or coconut sugar. These changes can alter the cookies’ flavor, texture, and shelf life, potentially impacting customer satisfaction. The sourcing of specialty ingredients is also more expensive and logistically complex, creating a balancing act for companies trying to maintain brand identity while catering to evolving health trends.
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2. Rising Ingredient Costs
Fluctuations in the cost of raw materials, including wheat, sugar, butter, and cocoa, pose a major challenge. Factors like inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions can impact all stages of production. Smaller or regional companies are particularly vulnerable to these rising costs, as it can be difficult to absorb them without raising prices. In a highly competitive market, increasing product prices can reduce consumer demand and erode brand loyalty.
Market Overview by Key States
The U.S. cookie market is influenced by regional preferences, demographics, and health trends. California, Texas, and New York are key drivers of market growth.
California Cookies Market
California is a hub of innovation for the cookie industry, driven by a large, health-conscious population with a strong preference for organic, plant-based, and gluten-free products. The state’s consumers value sustainability and ethical sourcing, which fuels demand for premium and artisanal brands. Major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are home to specialty bakeries that leverage local ingredients and unique flavor profiles.
Texas Cookies Market
Texas’s market is thriving due to its sizable population and diverse demographics. While classic cookies remain popular, there is a growing demand for Southern-inspired flavors like snickerdoodle and pecan. The state also has a strong market for cookies with Hispanic influences, reflecting its cultural diversity. Texas’s extensive network of supermarkets and independent bakeries provides excellent distribution opportunities.
New York Cookies Market
New York’s cookie market is competitive and trend-driven, shaped by the state’s fast-paced urban lifestyle and global culture. Consumers in New York City value gourmet, artisanal, and internationally inspired flavors, with trends favoring filled cookies, gluten-free, and vegan options. The dense population and high foot traffic make it an ideal location for pop-ups and direct-to-consumer brands, and online ordering and food delivery services significantly impact sales.
Recent Industry Developments
- July 2025: Hershey and Mondelēz International collaborated to launch two new products: the Reese’s Oreo Cup and the Oreo Reese’s Cookie, combining two iconic brands.
- May 2025: Pillsbury introduced “Pillsbury BIG COOKIES,” a line of chilled cookie dough that allows consumers to bake fresh, large, bakery-style cookies at home.
- April 2025: Mondelez International expanded its Tate’s Bake Shop brand into the soft-baked cookie segment, a significant move for a company previously known for its thin and crispy cookies.
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